With the announcement of schedule for the forthcoming Assembly
Elections in Punjab, political activities are since commencing, albeit
sluggishly. Elections are to be held on February 14th to elect 117
members for the 16th State Assembly. Results are to be declared on
March 10th. Major players are going to be Congress, AAP and SAD
(Badal). BJP, erstwhile associate of SAD will also be in the fray, in alliance
with Capt Amarinder Singh, and some other minor parties.
Traditionally Punjab majorly has had a bi-party system, prime contenders
being Congress and SAD (B), latter allied with BJP. Latter successfully won two
consecutive elections in 2007 and 2012 and formed government along with BJP.
The situation, however, underwent a change when in 2017, they lost assembly
elections. Congress emerged victorious and formed government. 2017 election,
however, witnessed the emergence of a third political contender, the Aam Aadmi
Party. Initially there was a massive wave in its favour, but it soon started
withering away because of mismanagement and over confidence. Still it captured
22 assembly seats and 23.80% of total electoral votes. It dented the vote bank
of Congress and SAD by1.47% and 11.20% respectively. Now it hopes to form its
own government in forthcoming elections. Various ground level surveys to date
raise its expectations. However infighting within its state unit and cribbing
between wannabes are damaging it. It also appears to be losing support of
powerful farmer bodies on account of non fulfillment of reported assurance that
some Sikh farmer leader may become its Chief Ministerial face. Some other
farmer leaders also hoped to obtain some ministerial berth in case it emerged
victorious.
Parting ways with BJP, SAD (B) has since allied with BSP, which
has strong presence in parts of Doaba region, in and around Jalandhar. however
BSP never had any significant presence in state assembly and is not likely to
be able to create any magic spell overnight. A good chunk of farmers are upset
with the SAD because the so-called "black agricultural laws" were
enacted when its leader Harsimrat Kaur Badal was a part of Modi government.
Neither party patriarch Parkash Singh Badal nor his son Sukhbir Singh Badal
immediately stood up with farmers cause. By the time they did so and Harsimrat
Kaur Badal resigned and party decided to stand by the farmers, it was too late.
Some of recent rallies and "tractor marches" of Sukhbir Singh Badal have
been lack luster. It is a clear signal of where SAD stands as on date.
Registration of a drug related case against Bikram Singh Majithia, Sukhbir
Badal’s brother in law and an “iconic” leader of the Majha region consisting or
the border belt of Amritsar further dashed party hopes in that region and it
tried to do some damage control by “re-enlisting” some erstwhile dissident
Akali leaders of that region. Now that Bikram Majithia has been granted bail,
infighting in that area is going to increase. Majithia and these “re-enlisted”
leaders did not see eye to eye. Anyhow, Bikram’s release on bail will certainly
improve, though only marginally, SAD prospects in Majha area.
Next player, the BJP never had any significant hold in Punjab.
It “piggi-backed” their former ally, the SAD. Farmers lobby which primarily
consists of Jatts, is also all set against it. This fact was abundantly clear
when some farmer leaders, despite “persuasion” by the state government, still
congregated on the route of Prime Ministerial convoy and thus disrupted the
visit itself. Back door contact between
Akalies and BJP is rumoured to be on, but any pre-poll alliance between them is
not feasible.
Of late Congress has been trying hard
to gain whatever ground SAD / BJP combine and AAP have had lost. Hushed word is
doing rounds that CM Channi had acted "bravely". That he had the
“guts to stall the Prime Ministerial visit to Ferozepur”, that he is still
holding ground and is ready to sacrifice whatever he has to, for the
"dignity and prestige" of Punjab. He appears to have shaken off the image
of him being a “timid and under confident leader”, who was dominated and
“subjugated” by a vociferous Navjot Sidhu, PPC president. Till before the
Prime-Ministerial visit, he was apparently on a slide down. Dissentions were
apparent within the party. In the background of the Ludhiana blast, it was also
being alleged that he had no hold on law and order situation Congress, in
Punjab, always has had support of a good chunk of “dalit” votes. Chief Minister
Channi, belongs to the “dalit” community and he has, right from day one, doing
a lot of good work for the community, thereby increasing his grip there on. Post
Prime Ministerial visit to Punjab, political scene appears to be shifting in
favour of Congress.
In Punjab politics, religious deras
always have had an important and decisive role to play. There are several
thousands of such deras and they have good followings. With the announcement of
election schedule, these deras will now see whole hearted efforts from various
parties to woo them. Already several political leaders have started contacting
Dera Sachcha Sauda of Sirsa. It has good hold almost all over Punjab,
particularly the Malwa region which starts from Patiala and goes on to Bhatinda
and beyond. In the absence of its head, Ram Rahim, its political affairs
committee has been managing dera affairs, of course under the guidance of its
guru, who is currently incarcerated in a prison in Rohtak district of Haryana.
Coming days will need regular analysis of the trends and
developments.
It is going to be an interesting electoral battle in Punjab…
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